SoCon First Round FCS Playoff Previews and Predictions

No. 18 Chattanooga (7-4) at No. 13  Austin Peay (9-2), 3 p.m. EST

Game Preview: An all-Volunteer State will take place in the opening weekend of the FCS playoffs, as Austin Peay and Chattanooga will be meeting for just the seventh time in series history, with the Mocs holding the commanding 6-1 series edge. However, the last time the two met in 2021, the Governors were able to pick up what was a 30-20 win in the Scenic City. The Mocs are making their first playoff appearance since 2016 and first under the direction of Rusty Wright, who took over as the head coach of the Mocs football program in 2019. Despite losses in their final two games against No. 2 Furman (L, 14-17) and No. 8 Alabama (L,10-66), the Mocs find themselves in the FCS playoffs. For the Governors, who are under the direction of Scotty Walden, who is now in his fourth year leading the Governors’ football program, and has the Governors back in the FCS postseason for the first time since their debut in the postseason in 2019. That season the Governors posted a run to the quarterfinals of the FCS playoffs, with wins vs. Furman (W, 42-6) and Sacramento State (W, 42-28) before losing to Montana State (L, 10-24). The Mocs’ last trip to the FCS playoffs included a 45-14 win over Weber State to open the postseason and that followed with a 41-36 loss at Sam Houston State. The Govs are led by a quarterback who is one of the best in the FCS, with Walter Payton Award finalist Mike DiLello (230-of-340 passing, 3,057 yds, 27 TDs, 10 INTs/199 rush yds, 5 TDs) being a talented dual-threat signal-caller leading the Austin Peay offense. He had his best career performance of the season against another Southern Conference foe, as he completed 37 passes for 441 yards in a 63-3 win over East Tennessee State early in the season, while throwing six touchdowns in a 49-39 win over North Alabama. For his career, DiLello has passed for 7,579 yards and has 62-career passing TDs. His 3,057 passing yards ranks him third in the FCS this season, while 27 TD passes ranks him sixth overall in the FCS in that category. DiLello leads one of the most prolific offenses in the FCS, as the Govs enter the clash with the Mocs ranking ninth in the nation in scoring offense (35.3 PPG), 10th in total offense (438.3 YPG), and seventh in passing offense (289.3 YPG).The Governors are currently on pace to break the 2022 offensive record, which saw the Govs finish the season averaging a school-record 423.5 YPG of total offense. DiLello has some more than capable options at his disposal, which includes running back Jevon Jackson (229 rush att, 1,189 yds, 8 TDs, 5.2 YPC). Jackson also has 11 catches for 78 yards and a score this season. The primary weapons in the passing game for the Govs include Tre Shackelford (50 rec, 760 yds, 5 TDs, 15.2 YPR) and Kam Thomas (50 rec, 629 yds, 5 TDs, 12.6 YPR), who are two of the best deep threats in FCS football. The third option in that passing attack for the Govs is Trey Goodman (32 rec, 710 yds, 7 TDs, 22.2 YPR), who leads the team with seven scoring catches this season. Chattanooga counters with a solid defense, led by SoCon Defensive Player of the Year for the second-straight season, in Jay Person (53 tackles, 16.0 TFL, 8.5 sacks, 6 QBHs, 3 FFs). Person is among the top defensive players in the country, and is one of FCS football’s top edge rushers. He enters the 2023 FCS playoffs as the SoCon’s leader in sacks (8.5) this season, and a Mocs player has led the SoCon in quarterback sacks in every season since 2018. Person is a Buck Buchanan Award finalist and is a part of a Mocs defense that enters the FCS playoffs with the 60th-ranked defense (357.9 YPG) in FCS football. The Mocs also rank No. 46 nationally in scoring defense (24.7 PPG). Other than Person on the defensive side of the football for UTC, keep an eye on defensive lineman Ben Brewton (28 tackles, 9.0 TFL, 7.0 sack, 8 QBHs, 1 FF), who is among the top defensive lineman in the FCS this season. As far as the secondary is concerned for Chattanooga, Kam Brown (28 tackles, 1.0 TFL, 3 INTs, 3 PBUs, 1 TD) leads the unit from his cornerback spot. However, the one weakness Chattanooga’s defense has is its defense, which is a concern when facing a team that is as capable throwing the football as the Govs are. Chattanooga has got a lot of pressure on opposing quarterbacks this season, as its 31 sacks this season ranks second in the SoCon behind Furman, who ranks third nationally with 36 quarterback takedowns this season. Chattanooga’s offense has been prolific at times this season, and the Mocs are led by UCLA transfer Chase Artopoeus (187-of-298 passing, 2,672 yds, 20 TDs, 7 INTs/147 rush yds, 1 TD) under center. Artopoeus sat out last week vs. Alabama in order to rest up and stay healthy for a hopeful FCS playoff bid. The Mocs lost top running back Ailym Ford late in the season to an ACL tear, however, Gino Appleberry (146 rush att, 631 yds, 7 TDs, 4.3 YPC) has been a solid replacement and there hasn’t been much of a drop-off at all at running back. There are four solid options in the passing game for Artopoues to throw to, with Jamoi Mayes (55 rec, 941 yds, 4 TDs, 17.1 YPR), Javin Whatley (48  rec, 871 yds, 8 TDs, 18.1 YPR), Sam Phillips (52 rec, 537 yds, 4 TDs, 10.3 YPR) and tight end Camden Overton (12 rec, 88 yds, 1 TD, 8.0 YPR). The Mocs offensive line has normally been a strength for the Mocs over the past several seasons, however, it is unit that struggled early on this season, but has improved as the season has progressed. The Mocs were forced to replace four of their five starters coming into the season, and Rusty Wright did a nice job of replacing those who departed with some talented performers. Center Reid Williams was the lone returning starter to the unit, but they have done a nice job of limiting opponents in terms of tackles for loss, ranking 16th nationally in tackles-for-loss allowed, which includes have allowed 17 sacks this season. Austin Peay comes into the contest with a defense that allows nearly 400 YPG (393.5) and ranks 87th nationally in total defense and 43rd in scoring defense (24.4 PPG). Leading the way along the defensive line for the Govs this season has been J’vian McCray (23 tackles, 5.0 TFL, 3.5 sacks, 3 PBUs, 1 blkd kick) at nose guard. Hosea Knifely Jr (47 tackles, 7.0 TFL, 4.0 sacks, 7 QBHs, 5 PBUs) is another leader along the defensive line for the Govs, having garnered All United Athletic Conference honors this season. 

Who Wins: While it would look good for the SoCon for the Mocs to come up with a big win here, the Govs are tough to beat at Fortera Stadium as Furman found out the hard way back in 2019. I like the Govs in a close one in a game that should be the game of the day in FCS football. 

Austin Peay 35, Chattanooga 27

Gardner-Webb (7-4) at No. 17 Mercer (8-3), 3 p.m. EST

Mercer will play its first-ever NCAA FCS playoff game Saturday when it hosts Gardner-Webb in the opening round of the postseason with kickoff slated for 3 p.m. EST at Five Star Stadium. After having been on the brink of a postseason berth each of the past couple of years, the Bears finally got to eight wins this season and were rewarded for that milestone a decade after bringing football following a 72-year hiatus. The winner of Saturday’s contest at Five Star Stadium gets the monumental task of trying to knock off No. 1 overall seed and defending national champion South Dakota State next Saturday in Brookings, South Dakota. The Bears and Bulldogs met on the football gridiron just last season, as Mercer came away with Ernest Spangler Stadium in Boiling Springs, N.C., with a 45-14 win on the strength of a huge day from former Gardner-Webb Bulldog Devron Harper (50 rec, 522 yds, 2 TDs, 10.4 YPR), who finished the contest with 173 all-purpose yards and three touchdowns (2-receiving, 1-rushing) in what was a big day on both sides of the football for the Bears. Mercer’s prolific offense under head coach Drew Cronic rolled up 357 yards, while the Bears defense picked off three different Gardner-Webb quarterbacks en route to the win. The meeting between the Bears and Bulldogs will mark just the second meeting between the two programs. The Bulldogs are making their second-straight appearance in the FCS playoffs, having blasted Eastern Kentucky, 52-41, on the road at Roy Kidd Stadium last season. The Bulldogs are 7-4 this season, however, two of those losses have come against FBS members App State (L, 24-45) and East Carolina (L, 0-44). The Bulldogs are under the direction of Tre Lamb, who is the nephew of former Mercer and Furman head coach and current Division II Anderson University head coach Bobby Lamb, who hired Drew Cronic as an offensive assistant during his time at Furman and as his offensive coordinator during his stint at Mercer. The Bulldogs utilize an air raid offense and have started two different quarterbacks this season, beginning the season with Jacksonville State transfer Matthew Caldwell (101-of-173 passing, 928 yds, 7 TDs, 3 INTs/84 rush yds, 1 TD) and now having entrusted the offense to Jaylen King (86-of-163 passing, 992 yds, 10 TDs, 5 INTs/392 rush yds, 5 TDs). King is much more the dual threat, and in some ways makes the Gardner-Webb offense more dangerous with his ability to run the football. The Bulldogs rank 72nd nationally in total offense, averaging 344.0 YPG. Interestingly, the Mercer offense, which is led by veteran Carter Peevy (172-of-256 passing, 2,087 yds, 11 TDs, 3 INTs/269 rush yds, 10 TDs), has improved as the season has progressed, enters the contest ranking 76th nationally in total offense (341.9 YPG), and Peevy has two of the very best receivers in the FCS to get the ball to, in the aforementioned former Bulldog Devron Harper, as well as Walter Payton Award finalist Ty James (54 rec, 1,002 yds, 7 TDs, 18.6 YPR). The Bears have more of a committee approach when it comes to the ground game, with Peevy possessing some deceptive speed under center for the Bears, while Al Wooten II (130 rush att, 639 yds, 6 TDs, 4.9 YPC) being the main threat on the ground for the Bears. The Bulldogs freshman quarterback Jaylen King is also a rushing threat, but the top ground threat is senior running back Narii Gaither (139 rush att, 684 yds, 2 TDs, 4.9 YPC), while the top option through the air for Gardner-Webb are both Ephraim Floyd (34 rec, 368 yds, 1 TD, 10.8 YPR) and Karim Page (34 rec, 326 yds, 2 TDs, 9.6 YPR). The difference in this matchup might be the defenses, with the Bulldogs having one of the top defensive linemen in all of FCS on its side, with defensive end Ty French (53 tackles, 17.5 TFL, 6.5 sacks, 17 QBHs, 3 FFs, 5 PBUs). French is a Buck Buchanan Award finalist and he leads a defensive unit that ranks 38th nationally in total defense (337.5 YPG). The Bears have two great players on the defensive side of the ball of their own, in linebacker Ken Standley (80 tackles, 13.0 TFL, 4.0 sacks, 1 INT, 1 TD, 2 PBUs, 1 FF) and defensive back Lance Wise Sr. (78 tackles, 2.5 TFL, 4 INTs, 2 PBUs, 1 FF, 2 TDs), and that duo leads a Mercer defensive unit that ranks second in the SoCon and 31st nationally (330.5 YPG).

Who Wins: This should be another good football game involving a Southern Conference team, however, I like the Bears in a close one at Five Star Stadium.

Mercer 24, Gardner-Webb 20