SoCon Football Update: League Race Heating Up as October Winds Down

                                            

No. 18 East Tennessee State (5-2, 3-0 SoCon) heads into the weekend on top of the league standings, and now in the FCS Top 25 for the first time this season, and won't likely find a big challenge from VMI (0-7, 0-4 SoCon) in a game that should go the way of the Bucs, although Lexington has never been an easy place to navigate for the Bucs even when there is a substantial talent differential. The Bucs and Keydets will represent the earliest kickoff time on Saturday. 

The Bucs are back in the national rankings in FCS Football for the first time since mid-September of 2022, and there's no big secret to the Bucs' success this season, as the offense has continued to thrive under the leadership of new quarterback Mason Mims (133-of-190 passing, 1,551 yds, 10 TDs, 3 INTs). Mims has established himself as the top quarterback in the Southern Conference.

VMI hasn't had much go right for it this season in what is Ashley Ingram's first at the helm of the Keydets' football program. The Keydets rank last in the nation in total offense, averaging just 198.0 YPG and have just six offensive touchdowns in seven games this season. The Keydets have lost 17-straight and are just 2-29 over the past 2.5 seasons, including a just 1-15 in SoCon play over that same span. The Keydets have now lost 14-straight SoCon games, dating back to a 21-17 win over Furman on Nov. 9, 2024 in Lexington.

The biggest challenge for the Bucs will be not overlooking this game to next week's showdown against No. 12 Tennessee Tech (6-1, 3-1 SoCon)  in Johnson City at William B. Greene Jr. Stadium. The Bucs and Keydets will be meeting on the gridiron for the 32nd time on Saturday, with the Bucs holding the commanding 20-11 all-time series edge. Kickoff is slated for 1:30 p.m. EST at Foster Stadium. 

The Golden Eagles will be in a tough environment of their own on Saturday, facing off against The Citadel (2-5, 0-3 SoCon) in what will be the first meeting between the two programs since 1960 and only the second all-time clash between the two. The Bulldogs blanked the Golden Eagles, 27-0, in that lone meeting between the two programs that took place back some 66 years ago.

The final stretch of the season will arguably the toughest part of the Golden Eagles' slate, as Tennessee Tech plays in its first season as a SoCon member. The Golden Eagles have played half of their SoCon slate in their first season as a league member and have seen three of their four games in the league decided by a touchdown or less. 

The challenge is real and it will be real in the final three SoCon games of the season, starting Saturday in Charleston against the Bulldogs before the Golden Eagles face a road test at No. 18 ETSU next week and then close the league slate on the road at No. 16 Mercer in what could be a winner take SoCon title type contest, and at the very least, could have an FCS Playoff bid at stake when those two face each other at Five Star Stadium on Nov. 14.

Like ETSU's Mims, Tennessee Tech's Jax Leatherwood (168-of-249 passing, 1,859 yds, 19 TDs, 4 INTs) has been outstanding under center this season. He leads an offense that has rarely been slowed this season, averaging 34.0 PPG and a solid 382.2 YPG, including 268 through the air. The Golden Eagles have one of the top receiving units in the SoCon, paced by Gabe Nunez (39 rec, 562 yds, 3 TDs, 14.4 YPR) and Tre Holloway (33 rec, 406 yds, 5 TDs, 12.3 YPR).

The Golden Eagles have been equally adept on the defensive side of the ball, holding foes to just 22.7 PPG and surrendering just 185.4 YPG, ranking 24th nationally in total defense. Hudson Tucker (20 tackles, 7.0 TFL, 5.0 sacks, 8 QBHs) continues to be one of the league's top individual defenders at edge rusher

The Bulldogs have been inconsistent on offense, but when they get things right, head coach Maurice Drayton's team has been pretty good. As consistent as Leatherwood has been on offense for the Golden Eagles, the Bulldogs' quarterback situation has often been defined by inconsistency this season, with both Quentin Hayes (31-of-64 passing, 402 yds, 4 TDs, 2 INTs/292 rush yds, 1 TD) and Nick Billoups (25-of-40 passing, 282 yds/167 rush yds, 2 TDs) having split time under center this season. 

The Bulldogs continue to rank 15th nationally in rushing offense (200.6 YPG), as that unit is led by Gavin Garcia (127 rush att, 625 yds, 6 TDs, 4.9 YPC), who ranks third in the SoCon in rushing so far this season. The Bulldogs also have done a nice job of playing "old school" Bulldogs football this season, as The Citadel ranks third nationally in time of possession (32:38). 

Both the Bulldogs and Golden Eagles stepped out of league to take on challenges last weekend, with The Citadel dropping a 41-0 contest at Texas A&M, while Tennessee Tech was victorious at Tucker Stadium, with a 49-28 win over former league rival Eastern Kentucky. Kickoff between the Bulldogs and Golden Eagles is slated for 2 p.m. EST at Johnson-Hagood Stadium.

Two teams that continue to find some improvement as the season has progressed are both Furman (2-5, 1-2 SoCon) and Samford (1-6, 1-3 SoCon), although their respective records might not be reflective of that. Furman was off last Saturday and will be back at home for the first time in three weeks, as the Paladins will be celebrating homecoming Saturday when they face the Bulldogs. 

Samford was in action last Saturday against No. 16 Mercer, as the Bulldogs dropped what was a hard-fought, 31-21, in the Nexstar SoCon Game of the Week.

Following a 20-13 win at No. 14 Mercer in its first Southern Conference game of the season, the Paladins have lost consecutive contests to No. 16 South Carolina State (L, 20-17), No. Richmond (L, 13-9), Wofford (L, 30-25) and No. 11 Tennessee Tech (L, 20-15) and are very much on the outside looking in when it comes to any shot at a SoCon title.

The Bulldogs have struggled mightily over the past two seasons, having lost 21 of their last 24 games dating back over the past 2.5 seasons, including 15 of their last 17 games over the past two seasons and 0-17 against opponents not named VMI. 

Samford is under the direction of first-year head coach John Grass, as his Bulldogs put up a good fight before eventually dropping a 31-21 contest to the 18th-ranked team in the country. 

The Bulldogs and Paladins have been mirror images in a lot of ways on the field this season, with both struggling on the offensive side of the football entering Saturday's clash, while both have also been pretty strong on the defensive side of the football. 

Both programs also have two of the top place-kickers in the Southern Conference this season, with Ty Ippolito playing the starring role for the Bulldogs, while the Paladins call upon a top place-kicker of their own, in Nathan Chapman. Ippolito is the reigning SoCon

Saturday's Homecoming clash at Paladin Stadium will mark the 28th all-time meeting between the two programs, which began back in 1961, with the Paladins getting what was a 21-14 win over the Bulldogs on that occasion. That would be followed by five-straight wins in the series by the Bulldogs. Furman's longest streak in the series came in a seven-game winning streak from 1997-2010. 

In its previous trip to Paladin Stadium, Samford handed the Paladins a 34-27 loss a couple of years ago en route to making a run to the Southern Conference play, as the Bulldogs went unbeaten in league play to claim their first officially recognized Southern Conference title. 

The Bulldogs and Paladins were part of a three-way tie for the league crown back in 2013, however, Samford had to later vacate that title, as it had played with ineligible players. The Bulldogs would end up vacating that title in 2016. 

Since joining the SoCon back in 2008, the Bulldogs have posted a 77-70 all-time mark in league play and will be playing a game at Furman for the first time since 2022, as that season would see the contest canceled due to Hurricane Helene.

Furman hasn't taken the field since that Oct. 10 loss at No. 14 Tennessee Tech. The big question for the Bulldogs might be who plays quarterback, following the early exit of Gabarri Johnson (119-of-209 passing, 1,159 yds, 7 TDs, 7 INTs) due to injury last Saturday, as he did not return for the second half. 

The Bulldogs have played three different quarterbacks under center this season, as Charlie Gilliam (15-of-25 passing, 128 yds, 1 INT), and Coulter Cleland (8-of-12 passing, 114 yds) have all taken snaps at different times this fall for Samford. Cleland was the quarterback that finished the game against Mercer last Saturday in what turned out to be a 31-21 loss.

Though the Bulldogs have struggled offensively this season, ranking 106th nationally (290.6 YPG), the Bulldogs have some big play options at wide receiver, in Marquise Henderson (23 rec, 403 yds, 3 TDs, 17.5 YPR) and Preston Bird (28 rec, 271 yds, 2 TDs, 9.7 YPR).  The Bulldogs are averaging a healthy 211.9 YPG through the air this season, but have struggled to protect Samford's passers this season, ranking tied for 117th nationally with 23 sacks (3.29 SPG) through seven games this season.

Furman counters with an offense that has also experienced its share of struggles, with nine total TDs representing the third-least in the nation. The good news is Nathan Chapman has been almost automatic as a place-kicker this season, having connected on 10-straight field goals heading into Saturday's clash with the Bulldogs, including 14-of-17 overall and his 82.4% conversion rank puts him 16th overall in the FCS this season. 

As for Furman's defense, it continues to be one of the best in the nation, ranking 42nd overall nationally (313.7 YPG) and the 22.4 PPG ranks the Paladins 26th nationally in scoring defense. 

Samford's defense counters with a unit that ranks 31st nationally in total defense (341.0 YPG) and third nationally in passing yards allowed (141.0 YPG). Part of the reason for Samford's defensive success is due to a Paladin being on staff in Homewood, in Cally Chizik, who coaches safeties and is a defensive analyst. Drew Swinney, who is Samford's wide receivers coach, is the son of Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney.

The final matchup to be aware of on Saturday is maybe the biggest, as Chattanooga (4-3, 3-1 SoCon) heads to Cullowhee to face off against Western Carolina (3-4, 1-2 SoCon). The Catamounts' lone SoCon win this season was arguably the most impressive, knocking off No. 8 Tennessee Tech, 44-20, in Cullowhee. However, Western would drop a heartbreaking, 17-14, contest at Mercer a week later to suffer its second league loss.

On Saturday, the Catamounts face a Chattanooga team still very much in the SoCon title race and a Mocs team that brings one of the top defenses in the country into the clash, with the Mocs ranking third nationally in total defense (259.4 YPG), while also ranking second in scoring defense (12.6 PPG) and fifth nationally in team sacks (22/3.14 SPG). 

The 12.6 points allowed per game would rank fourth in school history if the season were to end today, and it also ranks as the second-best in the modern era, with only the 1982 unit, which allowed just 12.5 PPG ranking better in program history. 

The Catamounts have ticked a little slower this season on offense but are still among the league's and nation's top units on that side of the ball under the leadership of Lex Thomas (153-of-241 passing, 1,693 yds, 8 TDs, 1 INT/274 rush yds and 5 TDs), as the Catamounts bring the 27th best offense (418.6 YPG) in the nation into the matchup. Thomas is not Taron Dickens as a passer, but he might be just slight bit better as a dual threat. Thomas, like his predecessor Dickens, is leading the SoCon in total offense, leading the league at 281.0 YPG. 

Western Carolina is averaging 31.6 PPG, which ranks the Catamounts tied for 32nd nationally in scoring offense. 

As usual, the favored mode of operation when it comes to moving the ball for Kerwin Bell's offense has been through the air, as the Catamounts enter the clash averaging 255.7 YPG via the air, which also ranks 21st nationally. They come against a Chattanooga passing defense that ranks second in the nation in passing yards allowed this season, allowing just 140.6 YPG through the air through the first seven games.

Defensively, the Catamounts have taken some steps in the right direction in recent weeks, allowing just 20 points in the win over Tennessee Tech and only 17 in the loss at Mercer after surrendering 58 in their league opening game at East Tennessee State earlier this season. 

Despite the strides made, however, the Catamounts still rank in the bottom third of FCS football in total defense, entering the clash ranking 110th overall (448.7 YPG) and tied for 85th in scoring defense (31.4 PPG). 

Leading the Western Carolina defense this season has been linebacker Joshua Collins, who has posted 38 tackles, three tackles-for-loss, two sacks and an INT this season. The Catamounts have picked off eight passes this season, with three of those picks coming from Jayden Corneilous, who picked off two of those passes in the narrow loss at Mercer two weeks ago. 

Chattanooga's struggles this season have been notable on the offensive side of the ball when it comes to throwing the ball downfield, as the Mocs rank 123 out of 124 teams ranked in FCS in passing offense (86.0 YPG). The Mocs also rank as one of the worst offenses overall in the country, ranking second-to-last in the league and 116th nationally in total overall output (274.1 YPG), while also ranking tied for 92nd in scoring offense (20.0 PPG). Leading the Mocs offense into action on Saturday will be Battle Alberson (51-of-105 passing, 602 yds, 2 TDs, 3 INTs/87 rush yds, 2 TDs), who has been a solid run threat and game manager this season under head coach Rusty Wright. 

One area that has been good for the Mocs offensively is rushing the football, with two of the top running backs in the SoCon, in both Kevin Lalin (134 rush att, 690 yds, 6 TDs, 5.1 YPC) and Journey Wyche (78 rush att, 439 yds, 2 TDs, 5.6 YPC). Lalin currently ranks 10th nationally and second in the SoCon in total rushing yards this season. 

Defensively, the Mocs have been led by linebacker Zion Rutledge (63 tackles, 4.5 TFL, 2.0 sacks, 1 PBU, 1 FF, 1 QBH). Defensive end Orlando Daniels (22 tackles, 7.0 TFL, 5.0 sacks, 2 FFs, 2 QBHs) has been part of a wrecking crew defensive line this season, and his five sacks are tied for first in the SoCon so far this season. 

Overall, this is a series that has been controlled by Western Carolina of late, as the Catamounts have won four-straight in the series, dating back to 2022. A win Saturday would give Western Carolina its longest winning streak all-time in the series, as the two will be meeting for the 52nd time on Saturday, with the Mocs holding the 30-21 series edge. 

The last four games in the series have been decided by an average of four points, with the largest margin of victory for the Catamounts coming just last season in the Scenic City, as the Catamounts took a 35-27 win at Finley Stadium.

A loss by Western Carolina Saturday likely puts them out of the SoCon title race for good, which also would then put them out of the playoff race. A loss by Chattanooga would put them on life support for both a conference title and an at-large spot for the playoffs. Kickoff is slated for 2:30 p.m. EST at EJ Whitmire Stadium in Cullowhee and is the SoCon's Nexstar Game of the Week.

Score Predictions for Saturday

ETSU 48, VMI 14

The Citadel 28, No. 12 Tennessee Tech 26

Furman 20, Samford 10

Chattanooga 24, Western Carolina 20